Nfl Red Zone
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Nfl Situation Spotlight - #25: the Importance of Red Zone Conversion Percentage
Red Zone Conversion percentage is one of those basic-box score stats that has been around for so long, it's easy to overlook it in today's 12-15 page NFL Gamebooks. It's a deceptively simple, yet powerful statisticteams that consistently convert Red Zone drives into touchdowns are the same teams that win games, and cover spreads. Teams with strong rushing games and tall, athletic receivers usually do well in the Red Zone, while teams that have trouble pounding the ball up the middle and don't have the corners of the end-zone staked out will be kicking field-goals more often than not.
The fact that a high RZC% has a direct correlation with both SU and ATS wins should come as no surprise to even the casual fan. What is more interesting; however, is that RZC% also serves as an excellent tool in the prediction of future outcomes when used appropriately.
The power of RZC% as a handicapping tool truly becomes apparent when we compare how well one team has performed in the Red Zone while on offense, season-to-date, against the percentage that their upcoming opponent has surrendered scores in the Red Zone over the same time period. I actually analyze match-ups of opposing offensive and defensive units in many different areas and for many situations to determine if one team has an advantage (AD for short) over the other that can be significant enough to affect the end result versus the spread.
Before we can determine which team may or may not have an advantage, we need to know the league average for the statistic in question. In this case, the league average for converting drives that enter the Red Zone into touchdowns is roughly 50%. Therefore, if Team A were to have a RZC% For (Offense) of 55%, and Team B was to have a RZC% Against (Defense) of 60%, this would effectively give Team A a RZC%F AD of +15%. The formula would be:
(Team A's RZC%F - League Average) - (League Average - Team B's RZC%A)
Which gives us: (55 - 50) - (50 - 60) = +15%.
When we combine Team A's better-than-average results in the Red Zone (+5%), plus, Team B's worse-than-average ability to defend in the Red Zone (-10%), Team A ends up with a distinct advantage that they may be able to exploit if the two were to meet head-to-head.
And that is where Situation #25 fits in. The premise is this: Since 2002, teams that have a RZC%F AD of > 7.5 are an awesome 161-98 (62.2%) ATS when they also have a RZC%A > 50 and an Above Average Rushing Game Rating (this is ROF + RDE). Not impressed? Let's put things into monetary termsif you had wagered $110 to win back $100 on each game, you would have netted a tidy profit of $5,320 based on the results of these 3 different factors, over the past 7 seasons.
The last Primary condition for this situation involves looking at how often the current opponent of the team in question surrenders a first-down in Short-Yardage situations on 3rd and 4th down (S3C%A). This applies to all 3rd-4th down plays with 2 or less yards-to-go. When we remove all opponents that have a worse-than-average (greater than 65%) S3C%A, the record for this situation jumps to an incredible 104-37 ATS (73.8%).
There are 3 different Secondary conditions (i.e., tighteners) that round out this situation. Secondary conditions normally exclude only a small percentage of games from the pool of NFL contests that apply. One example would be to 'Exclude all Monday Night Games', or, in the case of this particular situationgames in Week 17 are not included when many of the high-level teams involved are resting players as well as any games played prior to Week 4. Teams in a situation where they may be 'looking ahead' to playing an opponent with a winning percentage above .800 in their next game are also eliminated.
Excluding games in Week 17 makes sense for this situation, but, one needs to be careful when including too many Secondary conditions and things can get out of hand very quickly in this regard. It's important that Secondary conditions fit into the context of the main logic, or building blocks of the situation itself. Tightening this particular situation by removing games in Week 9 only, or teams that had exactly 2 pre-season wins, are examples of out-of-context conditions that will only serve to falsely inflate the win percentage and reduce the situations potential for matching its past success in future games.
Here is the full summary for Situation #25 and all it's related stats.
(Notes: ASM stands for Average Spread Margin and TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average Spread for teams in this situation.)
Situational Trend #25 Summary (Last Updated: Jan 15th, 2008)
Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Red Zone Conversion% For Advantage (RZC%F AD) > 7.5.
2) Red Zone Conversion% Against (RZC%A) > 50.
3) Above Average Rushing Game Rating (AAVG RG).
4) Opponent S3C%A (OP S3C%A)
Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) Exclude Week 17 and Week 0.800.
Situation Stats
ASM: 5.6
Home%: 50.4
Dog%: 45.0
TDIS%: 87.5
WT%: 66.1
SPR: -0.93
Top Teams: SD(20); KC(12); SEA(7); OAK(7)
Situation Records
Overall (Since '01): 100-26 ATS
2007 Season: 11-4 ATS
2006 Season: 6-2 ATS
2005 Season: 13-2 ATS
2004 Season: 26-5 ATS
Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.
2007 WK19--NE 31 JAC 20 (JAC +13) W
2007 WK18--JAC 31 PIT 29 (PIT +2.5) W
2007 WK16--SD 23 DEN 3 (SD -9) W
About the Author
Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and situational trend analysis, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com.
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Nfl Party Zone 14 Oz Cups Pkg/8 $1.99 The NFL Party Zone Cups features the NFL logo on a white cup with green, blue and red accents. The NFL plastic tumblers hold 14 ounces and come in packages of 8. These great stadium cups are sure to score you a touch down on game day. |
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Red Zone $19.99 Red Zone - Premium Poster |
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LF EXPLORER: NFL RUSH ZONE $31.99 LF EXPLORER: NFL RUSH ZONE |
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NFL Scoreboard $70.1 High Quality Content by WIKIPEDIA articles NFL Scoreboard is a weekly inseason program on the NFL Network. It is a studio show hosted by Fran Charles, with analysis from former National Football League center Jamie Dukes. The program begins every Sunday at 4 p.m. Eastern time and airs, in more or less a continuous loop, until the conclusion of NBC Sunday Night Football at approximately 11:30 p.m. ET. NFL Scoreboard consists of score updates, analysis, limited game highlights, and extensive postgame comments from players and coaches. This program was once the last part of Red Zone. That show consists of game updates presented with text and graphics on the television screen and audio from Sirius NFL Radio. From 2003 to 2005, Red Zone ran from 1 p.m. to 11 p.m. Eastern, followed by Point After. As part of the networks 2006 revamp, Point After became a fivedayaweek show, Red Zone was reduced to three hours, and this show and NFL GameDay were created. Author: Surhone, Lambert M./ Tennoe, Mariam T./ Henssonow, Susan F. Binding Type: Paperback Number of Pages: 90 Publication Date: 2010/08/17 Language: English Dimensions: 6.00 x 9.02 x 0.22 inches |
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2010 Topps NFL Blaster $20.32 2010 Topps NFL Blaster Topps Football takes the field for 2010. Featuring 110 Rookies appearing for the first time in a Topps product in their new NFL uniforms along with NEW! NFL Draft 75th Anniversary, 1952 Bowman, and Red Zone Rookie cards, Topps Football leads the league! |
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Nfl Party Zone Centerpiece Each $5.99 The NFL Party Zone Centerpiece has the look of a Super Bowl trophy with its football atop a pyramid base. The cardstock NFL centerpiece's base has all the NFL team pennants along with the NFL, NFC and AFC logos. Decorate your game day table with this great 17 inch football centerpiece; sprinkle confetti around the NFL Party Zone Centerpiece or place our tissue grass mats beneath to give your table a real football field look. |
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Red Zone I $37.99 Brent Nelson Red Zone I - Art Print |
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Red Zone II $37.99 Brent Nelson Red Zone II - Art Print |
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Red/Gray Zone $124.99 Robert Mangold Red/Gray Zone - Serigraph |
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LF Explorer: NFL Rush Zone $22.99 LeapFrog Leapster Explorer Learning Game: NFLRush Zone |
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Nfl Party Zone Dinner Plates Pkg/8 $2.15 The NFL Party Zone Dinner Plates show off every NFL team in the league on a square plate Each package of eight NFL dinner paper plates measure 9 inches each. The NFL Party Zone Dinner Plates are perfect for tailgating before the big game! |
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Nfl Party Zone Invitations Pkg/8 $3.49 The NFL Party Zone Invitations have the look of a football with it's leather and laces along with, the NFL logo and the phrase "Get in the Game". Each of the NFL party invitations has room inside for all your important party information - for, date, time, place and R.S.V.P. These fun NFL invitations are a great way to invite all your guest to your game day festivities. |
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NFL Party Zone 14 oz. Plastic Cups (8 count) $3.99 NFL Party Zone 14 oz. Plastic Cups (8 count) |
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Nfl Party Zone Basic Kit-N-Kaboodle Kit $15.99 Our Basic Kit-N-Kaboodle saves you up to 40% instead of buying each item individually and includes: Dinner Plates (8) Luncheon Napkins (16) 9 oz. Hot/Cold Cups (8) Invitations (8) Dark Blue Plastic Cutlery (set of |
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Kansas Jayhawks Red Zone Cube T-Shirt $15.99 Kansas Jayhawks Red Zone Cube T-Shirt Size Medium Red |
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Red Zone Offense (DVD) $39.99 With Tim Salem,University of Central Florida Offensive Coordinator/Running BacksA well-practiced Red Zone Offense is often the difference between winning and losing. Coach Salem starts this DVD by diagramming five simple passing plays that will look the same to your quarterback, but with varying formations, routes and motion will look like 15 different plays to the defense. These plays are designed to make your quarterback's job easier and create more consistency in his reads and throws. Salem diagrams five additional passing plays to build on this red zone concept. All of these plays can be used anywhere on the field, but are especially effective for 2-point situations and in the red zone. In all, this excellent DVD provides you with 20 different passing plays to help your team put the ball in the end zone. 55 minutes. 2008. |
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Red Zone 20 Pound $43.51 Contains variety of high protein forage and grain soybeans, high protein forage peas, succulent buckwheat and sunflowers. Can be planted anytime during the spring and summer even early fall for a late maturing food plot. Provides a high protein food plot in the spring and summer, provides a high energy diet for fall and winter. All plants in red zone will mature at different periods for a 12 month food plot. Search_Phrases: Miscellaneous Lawn And Garden,Red Zone 20 Pound,Antler King Trophy |
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Hallmark 191118 NFL Party Zone 14 oz. Plastic Cups $18.08 Cool cups for your football party. These NFL Party Zone 14 oz. Plastic Cups 8 count have the NFL logo on a green background. Cup is made of sturdy plastic and is a great take home souvenir This is an officially licensed NFL item. 2010 NFL Properties LLC. Material: Plastic. |
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In the Zone $12.49 In the Zone |


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